A demonstration of how Forfait turns a complex national question into a decision-ready package — diagnosis, forward foresight, interactive models you can run yourself, and a specified, costed action program. Worked end-to-end on a single, nationally important question: how Abu Dhabi can enable more Emiratis to marry earlier and raise larger, stable families.
Most strategic questions arrive as a vague ambition or a worry. Forfait's job is to convert that into something a leadership team can decide on: what is actually happening (evidence), where it leads (foresight), what would change it (options modelled, not asserted), and exactly what to do (a specified program with owners, sequencing and a budget logic). This sample shows that full arc on a real subject, using only open data — so a prospective client can judge the depth, rigour and interactivity of an engagement before commissioning one.
The study asks how Abu Dhabi can reverse a falling Emirati birth rate and enable earlier marriage and larger, stable families. It links the macro picture (births, ageing, the future workforce) to the micro reality (a young household's income against its loans, a maid, and real child costs — and the debt ceiling that delays marriage).
It then models the incentive package that would actually move the decision — and lets you test it live in the two models in this dossier.
Findings & Foresight presents the evidence and where it leads. National Model and Household Model are fully interactive — change the inputs and the results, charts and recommendations update instantly. Policy Playbook lists the specified measures. Methodology & Disclaimer sets out the approach and the public sources. Use the tabs above.
Emirati births have fallen even as the total population grows, and the citizen fertility rate is sliding toward the replacement line. A country renews itself only if each generation roughly replaces itself; today's low death rate flatters the picture, because the population is still young.
Even as the citizen population keeps growing for now, its shape changes: today's large working generation will retire into a small elderly base, so the support ratio thins and the dependency burden climbs. Because today's births set tomorrow's workforce, the strain is already baked in — and if fertility slips below replacement it turns acute. The cheapest moment to act is while the population is still young. Run the National Model to see this for any scenario.
The macro decline has a micro cause. A young Emirati setting up a home stacks an interest-free housing loan, a marriage loan, and car/furniture loans — and quickly hits the Central Bank's 50% debt-burden ceiling, on top of a near-universal live-in maid and real per-child costs. On a single income the maths is tight even for a graduate, and a private-sector household can fall short well before the children arrive.
The conclusion that drives the policy design: cash alone cannot move these decisions. What unlocks earlier marriage and larger families is relief on the stacked debt (housing and loan consolidation under the ceiling), support for the unavoidable costs (childcare / the maid), and a modest, progressive family allowance — not one large cheque. Test the package in the Household Model.
Embedded live model. If it appears blank, switch tabs and return, or scroll within the panel.
Embedded live model. Defaults to a single income; a spouse-works toggle is included.
The study specifies measures across the family life-course, each with a mechanism, the lever it pulls, and an Abu Dhabi owner. The design principle throughout: lead with durable levers that raise completed family size, and treat cash as a supporting instrument.
| Cluster | Representative measures | Lever |
|---|---|---|
| Marriage & household formation | Forgivable marriage loan; housing-from-marriage (ADHA/Iskan); wedding-cost support | High · durable |
| Child allowance, redesigned | Index to inflation; make it progressive for the 3rd+ child; remove income cliffs | Medium |
| Childcare & early education | Subsidised nursery/ECEC; workplace nurseries; vouchers tied to employment | High · durable |
| Work–family compatibility | Father's quota; flexible/remote rights; return-to-work guarantee | High · durable |
| Fertility & health | IVF & reproductive-health coverage | Medium |
| Family stability | Mandatory first-five-year marriage support; pre-marital preparation | Medium · durable |
In the National Model this combination sustains births near current levels and slows the rise in the elderly share, against a "do-nothing" path in which births keep falling and the population ages faster.
| Horizon | Actions |
|---|---|
| First 90 days | Index the allowance; announce 3rd-child progressivity; pilot childcare + a father's quota; issue the RFI |
| 12 months | Scale childcare and workplace nurseries; legislate the father's quota and flexible-work right; integrate housing-from-marriage; stand up the measurement dashboard |
| 3 years | Move toward near-universal ECEC; complete the leave/flexibility framework; evaluate against completed cohort fertility |
The study triangulates published statistics, official programme parameters and international evidence into a transparent, input-driven model. Every assumption is editable; where Emirati-specific disaggregated data is not public, figures are clearly flagged as estimates and listed in the study's Request for Information so they can be replaced with audited numbers.
The two models share one logic: policy levers → household affordability → the decision to marry and have children → births, stability and the age structure → the national objective. The Household Model is the micro view of that chain; the National Model is the same logic at population scale.